The euro continues to rise on a daily and weekly basis, despite rising evidence the market for the currency is ‘frothy’ by historical standards.
Commitment of Traders (COT) data from the CFTC shows seven weeks on the trot of rising Euro-long positions. The implication is that more investors are placing trades to benefit from a stronger euro via futures and options markets. In the week through August 11, investors had the biggest net long position in the euro since the records started in 1999.
Contrarian investors would interpret the findings as suggesting a crowded trade, however the upwards trend is clear and many are betting on a new era of Euro outperformance.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 1.21.
The projected lower bound is: 1.18.
The projected closing price is: 1.20.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.9071. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.57. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 167.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.002 at 1.194. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.193 1.195 1.192 1.194 7,595
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.15 1.11 Volatility: 7 8 9 Volume: 86,542 106,796 94,553
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 7.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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