The pair has been on a bull run for the past eight weeks and is on track to post the longest weekly stretch of gains since 2004. FOMC minutes will have a significant impact on the EUR/USD in the coming days. Relative strength index is above 70 for the fourth time this year and has been on an upward trend since March.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hasn’t shown any indication of being in a rush to alter the present monetary policy course. So, the extreme reading in the RSI might further the upward bias of the EUR/USD.
The FOMC minutes might have dovish forward guidance as the agency aims to increase holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities at least at the current phase. Also, the US Dollar liquidity swap lines unveiled in March to ease the strain in global funding markets can continue to pressure the greenback, thus strengthening the EUR/USD up-move.
The crowding behaviour in the dollar might persist as the retail traders were bearish on EUR/USD since mid-May, even though the Fed uses asset purchases and lending facility to support the economy.
Nevertheless, the EUR/USD will be trading strong ahead of the FOMC Minutes and might test 1.1996, the May 2018 high.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.
A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.
During an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.6742. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.184. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.184 1.186 1.184 1.184 8,316
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.15 1.11 Volatility: 8 8 9 Volume: 85,516 106,133 94,768
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.
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