EUR/USD’s rally may have run out of steam and a multi-month high of 1.1916 reached on Thursday may turn out to be an interim top, technical studies indicate.
The daily chart shows a bearish divergence of the relative strength index and slow stochastic. A bearish divergence occurs when an indicator charts lower highs as opposed to higher lows, higher highs on price and is taken to be the sign of ebbing of bullish momentum.
In addition, Friday’s 0.78% decline validated the uptrend exhaustion signaled by Thursday’s spinning top candle and confirmed a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change.
As such, a stronger pullback may be seen this week. Immediate support is located at 1.1696 (Aug. 3 low), which, if breached, would confirm a double top breakdown on the daily chart and open the doors for 1.1482 (target as per the measured move method). On the higher side, 1.1916 is the level to beat for the bulls. At press time, the pair is side-lined near 1.1791.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.
The projected upper bound is: 1.19.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.18.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.0754. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.179. Volume was 90% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 70% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.179 1.180 1.177 1.179 11,544
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.14 1.11 Volatility: 9 8 9 Volume: 96,289 111,008 93,731
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into EUR= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.