The EUR/USD pair is little changed ahead of an important speech by Jerome Powell, the Fed chair. The pair is also reacting to better economic data from the United States. It is trading at 1.1800, which is in the same range it has been in the past few days.
US economy contracted in the second quarter
The EUR/USD pair reacted mildly to the GDP numbers from the United States. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy contracted by 31.7% in the second quarter. That was worse than the 5.0% decline in the first quarter, which means that the economy is in a technical recession. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting the economy to contract by 32.5%.
This decline was mostly because of poor consumer spending during the quarter because of the stay-at-home orders. As a result, consumer spending, which is the biggest part of the American economy, declined by 34.1% during the quarter. Exports also declined during the quarter.
The EUR/USD is possibly waiting for a statement by Jerome Powell, who will address participants of the virtual Jackson Hole summit. According to Bloomberg, the Fed chair is expected to talk about the bank’s review of monetary policy. In it, he will possibly talk about the new normal of low interest rates as the bank continues to grapple with the impacts of the pandemic. He could also talk about negative interest rates and yield curve control.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.18.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 15 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.9879. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.181. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 51% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.182 1.182 1.181 1.181 6,788
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.16 1.12 Volatility: 7 7 9 Volume: 91,213 103,125 95,739
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 5.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.
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