The Euro US Dollar exchange rate is advancing at the start of the new week, adding to gains of 0.9% across the previous week.
A strengthening Euro is complicating the European Central Bank’s fight against deflation. German inflation figures will be in focus this afternoon. Expectations are that inflation in the Eurozone’s largest economy will remain subdued in disinflation. The ECB is widely expected to boost its bond buying programme next month, a weak inflation reading is likely to boost expectations further and could cap gains in the Euro, at least for now.
Later in the session ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak. Again, investors will be listening closely for any hints to action next month.
The US Dollar is drifting lower in early trade as vaccine optimism and expectations of a dovish Fed drag on the greenback. The US Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar versus a basket of 6 major traded -0.1% at the time of writing, after having fallen to its lowest level since April 2018.
Whilst covid cases continue to rise in the US and hospitalisation hit another record high, upbeat vaccine developments across the month have kept the safe haven out of favour. Investors have been seeking out riskier assets and currencies despite resurging covid numbers and fresh lock downs in Europe and the US.
US data has been broadly mixed, with manufacturing and services continuing to show resilience, although the labor market recovery is showing signs of stalling. In the absence of any additional fiscal stimulus as Congress remains deadlocked, the Fed is widely expected to ease monetary policy further in December.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.
The projected upper bound is: 1.21.
The projected lower bound is: 1.18.
The projected closing price is: 1.20.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.3685. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 74 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.195. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.193 1.196 1.192 1.195 14,601
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.19 1.18 1.14 Volatility: 4 7 10 Volume: 87,438 105,032 110,275
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.