The 5-minute chart of the EUR/USD Forex market reverse up from a test down to just above yesterday’s low. But the rally failed to get above yesterday’s high.
Today so far is a bull inside day. If it closes above its midpoint, traders will see it as a buy signal bar for tomorrow. If not, traders will expect a 4th sideways day tomorrow.
As strong as the overnight rally was, the EUR/USD retraced about half and it fell more than 30 pips from the overnight high. That increases the chance of a trading range. Day traders will look to buy selloffs, sell rallies, and take quick profits.
The bulls would like a strong bull trend day. But they do not need it. All they really need is for today to be a good buy signal bar for tomorrow. The more today closes near its high, the higher the probability will be that last week’s rally is resuming. If today reverses back down to the low of the day, traders will expect more sideways to down trading tomorrow.
With the past 4 days all having prominent tails on the daily chart and the past 3 days being sideways, traders see the EUR/USD as fairly neutral. That reduces the chance of today closing on the high or low of the day. The fight will be over the size and direction of the body.
The reversal up overnight makes today likely to have a bull body. If the bulls are strong enough to get today to close near the high of the day, traders will be more willing to buy tomorrow, looking for a resumption of last week’s rally.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.
The projected upper bound is: 1.19.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.18.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.8572. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 62 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.180. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.180 1.181 1.180 1.180 36,523
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.18 1.14 Volatility: 7 7 10 Volume: 121,087 106,473 109,194
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.