The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate enters the new week with fundamental and technical analysts tipping an advance toward new 2020 highs after the single currency successfully navigated a wave of political and policy flak.
Europe’s single currency stalled before closing lower by a fraction for the period last week as multiple political pollutants fogged the atmosphere around European currencies that were previously trading at lofty heights.
The Euro was -0.12% for the week but only after Thursday’s post-European Central Bank (ECB) lifted it back from beneath the 1.21 handle when Europe’s monetary policymakers opted not to go nuclear on strengthening exchange rates by cutting their main interest rate further below zero.
Instead policymakers delivered the €500bn extension to the ECB’s quantitative easing programme that was anticipated by markets and said little about recent moves on the currency market, in an update that’s been perceived in some parts as a green light for a further increase in the Euro-to-Dollar rate.
Britain and Europe will be busy with a soap opera Monday, enabling investors to dedicate their energies to celebration of the Food & Drug Administration decision after the market close on Friday to approve for emergency use, the coronavirus vaccine made by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech
The world’s largest economy follows Britain next week in making the vaccine available to some of its most vulnerable and is hoping to have some 100 million people vaccinated by the end of March, almost a third of the population, while pressure is rising on European regulators to follow suit.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.19.
The projected upper bound is: 1.23.
The projected lower bound is: 1.20.
The projected closing price is: 1.21.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.6827. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.212. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 67% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.213 1.214 1.211 1.212 5,475
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.21 1.19 1.15 Volatility: 8 7 9 Volume: 107,144 106,516 110,676
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 5.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.