Many EUR/USD traders betting on a rise have held longs throughout a four-month consolidation, and they are likely to be rewarded for their patience.
For bulls, it’s encouraging that this consolidation has unfolded at an elevated level. The low point was earlier this month, at 1.1602, 46 days after the pair reached the 2020 peak at 1.2014. It represents a 9% gain from the 2020 low.
There has only been a minor correction of the March-September 1.0636-1.2014 rise with 23.6% of that rally being 1.1689. The 38.2% retracement, which is the minimum objective for a technical correction, is lower at 1.1488.
This consolidation unfolded with traders holding a massive amount of bets on a rise, which reached a record high just before the Sept. 1 peak. The number of longs even exceeded the maximum number of shorts in the euro zone crisis.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.18.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.3207. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 69 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.184. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.184 1.185 1.184 1.184 14,311
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.18 1.14 Volatility: 3 7 10 Volume: 101,537 108,216 110,169
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.