Euro: EUR/USD (EUR=X) Expected To Rise

Euro: EUR/USD (EUR=X) Expected To Rise

$EUR #Euro #FX #Currencies #Trade #Markets

The euro has broken above the 200 week EMA during the last couple of trading sessions, and remains very resilient, despite the actual fact that we continue to form plenty of wicks. That being said, for me the real breakout is going to be higher than the 1.15 handle, which of course will look more possible at this point. This doesn’t mean that I am jumping in and buy it right away, because if we can break above the 1.15 handle, then it becomes a major trend change in it suddenly is more or less a “buy-and-hold” market.

To the downside, if we break below the 200 week EMA, then we are probably going to go looking towards 1.12 level. The biggest problem with this pair is that the US dollar has a certain amount of demand and it due to the concern of risk around the world, but at the same time the Federal Reserve is flooding the market with cash. With that, it does wear upon the value of the US dollar over time.

EUR/US Dollar Exchange Rate

EUR/US Dollar FX Polls

Economic Events

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.

The projected upper bound is: 1.16.

The projected lower bound is: 1.13.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.7247. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 127.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.004 at 1.143. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open     High     Low      Close       Volume
1.138    1.144    1.138    1.143       104,774
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period      50-period      200-period
Close:           1.13           1.12           1.11
Volatility:      7              8              9
Volume:          107,493        114,681        91,815

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 3.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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