In the accounts of its July meeting, the ECB made some reference to the full use of the PEPP envelope that helped lift the euro. At the last meeting there were no changes to policy but the ECB did surprisingly say that it will use the full size of its PEPP program, effectively making the 1.35 trillion euros of asset purchases a target. In the minutes, some members suggested that since the economic data had been better than expected, that the total size of asset purchases should be a ceiling, rather than something that had to be achieved.
On the economic data front, German producer prices topped expectations with a 0.2% month-over-month gain and a surprise fall in yearly deflation to -1.7% when -1.8% was expected. Tomorrow sees the release of August services and manufacturing PMIs, which are expected to show a slowdown from July .
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 15 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.7571. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.187. Volume was 90% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 42% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.186 1.188 1.185 1.187 10,616
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.15 1.11 Volatility: 7 8 9 Volume: 86,870 106,078 95,023
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.
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