Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) will now either see a sharp breakout to the upside or to the downside
Ethereum (ETH) is finally close to its next big move that we have been waiting to come to fruition for weeks. The symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart will now either see a sharp breakout to the upside or to the downside. Considering that the cryptocurrency market is still due for another downtrend and the condition of the Stochastic RSI and RSI for ETH/USD on the 4H chart, I’m inclined to believe that we are very likely to break to the downside. The price remains below the 38.2% fib retracement level despite numerous attempts to break out. As long as that is the case, I have no reason to be bullish on Ethereum (ETH) or any other cryptocurrencies.
Many traders are waiting for a trend reversal at this point but I think it might turn out of be very risky as we do not know where the floor is. If the price starts to decline from here, I would not be surprised to see it crash below even $155 during the next downtrend. I am open to the possibility of the price breaking the symmetrical triangle to the upside but I would consider that to be a fake out and an opportunity to add to short positions. In any case, I would be very surprised to see the price closing above the 61.8% fib retracement level on the daily time frame. In my opinion, we are close to seeing the current move coming to fruition with the price completing a big move to the downside. This next move is what is very likely to turn the sentiment bearish once again and I think that would be a point to expect a short term trend reversal.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 195.15.
The projected upper bound is: 194.46.
The projected lower bound is: 146.57.
The projected closing price is: 170.51.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.0048. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX ETH= closed up 0.350 at 171.000. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
172.850 173.660 165.880 171.000 38,922
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 174.17 183.41 209.30
Volatility: 45 82 88
Volume: 78,901 73,504 65,554
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX ETH= is currently 18.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.
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