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Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Staged For Bull-Ride

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Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Staged For Bull-Ride

In upcoming year-2020, we have many reasons to Ether’s bullish price trend. Ethereum’s price rollercoaster during 2019, we assess the underlying driving forces and growing pains in 2020 that lie ahead as the network switches from 1.0 to 2.0.

As DeFi has been striking the chord among the largest crypto companies, huge money is flowing in decentralized finance (DeFi), and most importantly, many platforms built on Ethereum.
Subsequently, we verify the fundamental metrics driving price and assess their implications for the future of the Ethereum network.

ETH has been resistance to the downtrend as the Ethereum 2.0 is officially gone live and it has been surpassing the 9,069,000 blocks in its Istanbul hard fork.

In addition, Fidelity Investments’ crypto chief, Tom Jessop, Fidelity Digital Assets, has announced that he intends to adding support for Ethereum in 2020.

The Wall Street veteran, Jessop, is set to add on his experience to the relatively-new crypto services arm of Fidelity, claimed in the interview that his team has “done a lot of work on Ethereum.”

Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairman ​Heath Tarbert suggested in October 2019 that the US regulatory body has to consider ETH as a commodity. Tarbet said that he expected regulated ETH futures in as soon as six months.

Speaking a month later at Consensus Invest: NYC​, Tarbert explained that the CFTC, and its sister body, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), were now carefully studying the implications of the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 chain switch on ETH’s asset classification.

Thus, all these underlying factors drive us for in-depth analysis on Ethereum’s seasonal characteristics and use the Hurst exponent to tease out a likely trajectory in 2020.

ETHUSD (at Bitfinex) has been showing resistance after a resounding consolidation phase after bearish rout seen in 2018.

Technically, although the minor trend goes in little bearish mode, we’ve had considerable rallies spiking above 21-EMAs upon stern bullish engulfing candle at $129.61 levels, consequently, the price of ether against dollar has surged more than 340% in 2019. But the minor trend failing at 21DMAs, any bounce back above 21-DMAs signal renewed upside traction.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 163.70.

The projected upper bound is: 142.68.

The projected lower bound is: 117.34.

The projected closing price is: 130.01.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.3536. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 26.47. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -228.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -1.410 at 131.070. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
131.470 133.620 130.310 131.070 22,933
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 142.56 164.24 203.66
Volatility: 52 49 76
Volume: 54,720 55,754 65,232

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX ETH= is currently 35.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of ETH= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that ETH= is currently in an oversold condition.

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