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Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) short term upside correction above the $172 resistance

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) short term upside correction above the $172 resistance

This past week, Ethereum tested the $168 and $170 support levels on two occasions against the US Dollar. However, the bears were not able to gain strength below $168. As a result, there was a short term upside correction above the $172 resistance. More importantly, bitcoin rallied more than 5% and climbed above the key $8,200 resistance area.

During the rise, ETH price even broke the $175 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $172 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair tested the $177-178 area and it is currently consolidating gains. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $169 low to $176 high.

Additionally, it seems like the $175 level and the 100 hourly SMA are acting as supports. If there are more downsides, Ethereum price could test the $172 support area. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $169 low to $176 high is also near the $172 area to act as a major support. Any further losses could push the price back towards the key $168 support area.

On the upside, there are many important hurdles near the $178 and $180 levels. To move into a positive zone, the price has to move above the $180 resistance. The next key resistance is near the $185 level, above which ETH could start a solid upward move.

Looking at the chart, Ethereum price is clearly recovering and it is showing positive signs above $175. However, the price is likely to fail near the $180 or $185 resistance area. On the downside, the $168 level holds the key, below which the price could decline towards the $162 and $160 support levels in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 199.36.

The projected lower bound is: 150.44.

The projected closing price is: 174.90.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.1325. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -0.760 at 174.810. Volume was 70% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
175.310 177.510 171.540 174.810 20,041
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 177.18 182.73 211.84
Volatility: 48 84 85
Volume: 47,971 71,134 66,510

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 17.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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