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Saturday, October 16, 2021

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) remains in a downtrend as long as below $225

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) remains in a downtrend as long as below $225

In the past few days, there was a steady decline in Ethereum price from the $225 resistance against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair broke the $210 support level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a spike below the main $200 support level and a new swing low was formed near $197. However, it seems like the bulls were able to protect the $200 support as the price recovered sharply above $205.

There was a solid recovery above the $205 and $210 resistance levels. Moreover, there was a break above a short term ascending channel with resistance near $210 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair is now trading above the $210 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate support is near the broken channel at $211. Additionally, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $197 low to $215 swing high is also near the $210 level.

If the price continues to correct lower, the next support could be near the $206 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $197 low to $215 swing high is waiting near the $206 level to provide support. If the price slides below $205, the price is likely to move back towards $200.

On the upside, there are many important resistance levels near the $215, $220 and $225 levels. The main hurdle is near the $225 level, above which the price could turn positive in the coming days. If not, there is a risk of more losses below the $205 and $200 support levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 240.11.

The projected upper bound is: 250.53.

The projected lower bound is: 170.71.

The projected closing price is: 210.62.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.8971. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.03. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -0.120 at 211.280. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
211.380 212.170 208.440 211.280 3,365
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 214.85 262.40 187.01
Volatility: 41 93 86
Volume: 62,754 71,756 56,439

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 13.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of ETH= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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