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Monday, December 6, 2021

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price is declining again after it failed to break $178 and $180 against the US Dollar

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price is declining again after it failed to break $178 and $180 against the US Dollar

This week, we discussed the importance of the $178 and $180 resistance levels for Ethereum against the US Dollar. ETH did test the $178 resistance area recently, but it failed to continue higher.

As a result, there was a fresh decline initiated from $178 and the price broke the key $175 support. Similarly, there were bearish moves in bitcoin price after it failed to settle above the $8,200 level. BTC may perhaps continue to move down towards the $7,800 support.

The recent price action in Ethereum pushed it below the $175 and $174 levels. Moreover, there was a close below the $172 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The bears pushed the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $169 swing low to $178 high.

At the outset, the price is testing the $170 level, plus trading well below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $169 swing low to $178 high. Therefore, there are chances of more downsides below the $170 and $168 support levels.

If there is a break below $170, ETH could test the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $169 swing low to $178 high at $167. Having said that, the price is likely to continue lower and trade towards the $162 and $160 support levels.

On the upside, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $172 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Thus, a clear break above the trend line and close above $175 is needed for a fresh increase in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 190.02.

The projected upper bound is: 190.46.

The projected lower bound is: 141.95.

The projected closing price is: 166.21.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.6064. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 33 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -124.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -5.950 at 166.500. Volume was 79% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
172.450 173.380 162.080 166.500 13,898
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 174.83 182.28 211.89
Volatility: 51 84 85
Volume: 45,136 70,125 66,386

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 21.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.

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