Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price could decline heavily if it breaks $186

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price could decline heavily if it breaks $186

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price could decline heavily if it breaks $186

Recently, there was a decent rise in Ethereum above the $188 and $190 resistance levels against the US Dollar. Moreover, ETH price traded above the $192 resistance area and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

However, the price faced a strong resistance near the $195 level and a high was formed near $195. There was a downward move from the $195 and the price traded below the $190 level.

At the outset, Ethereum is holding the $188 and $186 support levels. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $192 level. Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $195 high to $188 low is near the $192 zone.

Therefore, an upside break above the $192 level might push the price towards the $195 resistance. An intermediate resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $195 high to $188 low.

On the downside, there are many supports near the $188 and $186 levels. More importantly, this week’s key bullish trend line is intact with support near $188 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

It seems like there is a head and shoulders pattern forming with support near the $188 and $186 levels. Thus, if there is a bearish break below the $186 support, the price could start a fresh decline in the near term.

The next key support is near the $185 level. Any further losses are likely to push the price back towards the main $178 support area.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 213.23.

The projected lower bound is: 163.26.

The projected closing price is: 188.24.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX ETH=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.1570. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 48 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 117.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -1.720 at 188.690. Volume was 75% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
190.650 192.680 186.230 188.690 16,046
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 186.07 181.75 212.90
Volatility: 46 88 86
Volume: 51,272 65,645 66,659

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX ETH= is currently 11.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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