Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Bulls Facing Uphill Task
This past week, there was a short term recovery in bitcoin and Ethereum against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair formed a decent support base near the $200 level and later started an upside correction. It traded above the $210 and $215 resistance levels. Moreover, there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $279 high to $191 low.
Additionally, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $212 on the 4-hours chart of ETH/USD. The pair even traded above the $220 level, but it remained well below the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). It seems like the $225 level acted as a strong resistance and prevented more gains. There were two rejections noted near the $225 level before the price declined below $220.
Moreover, the price remained well below the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $279 high to $191 low. On the upside, it seems like there are a few important resistances forming near $225, $230 and $235. The 100 simple moving average (4-hours) is near the $230 level to act as strong hurdle for the bulls. Therefore, a close above the 100 simple moving average (4-hours) and $235 is needed for an upward move.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 241.73.
The projected upper bound is: 246.25.
The projected lower bound is: 166.45.
The projected closing price is: 206.35.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.3054. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -145.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX ETH= closed down -11.490 at 207.160. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
207.910 208.600 205.350 207.160 5,105
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 218.67 263.42 186.69
Volatility: 51 93 86
Volume: 64,557 72,247 56,409
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX ETH= gapped down today (bearish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
FOREX ETH= is currently 11.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of ETH= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.