ETFs the Key Driver for Gold’s Gains Over the Last Year

ETFs the Key Driver for Gold’s Gains Over the Last Year


Gold ETFs are the go-to choice to easily and quickly gain exposure to the precious Yellow metal.

According to DataTrek research, ETF investors have been a Key driver of the 18.4% full-year gainer in gold prices, even as global demand for the precious Yellow metal dipped 1%. The data suggested that the rising prices helped attract investors, but pushed out consumers looking for jewelry.

For example, over 2019, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracted $5.2-B in net inflows and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) brought in $3.8-B, according to ETFdb data.

While volatility caused the markets to swing and global downturn concerns pushed investors into safe-haven plays, ETF holdings of physical gold increased 16% to 2,886 tonnes an all-time high.

Global central banks, which have been big net buyers of bullion in recent years, were less active last year, buying 0.9% less gold in Y 2019. But, it was still enough to keep full-year purchases around a 10 yr high.

Central banks like those in Russia and China have traditional looked to gold as “a way of gaining USD exposure without helping the American government fund its ever-growing budget deficit,” DataTrek’s co-founder said. “Gold is also a hedge against their local currency, of course.”

Meanwhile, consumer purchases of jewelry, bars and coins plunged or basically offset the inflows to ETFs. As prices increased last year to 1,481 oz in Q-4, or the highest mark since Y 2013, emerging market consumers who have previously been heavy buyers began to shy away.

Global ETF demand will continue to drive prices but it will be up to financial market investors to pick up the slack of lower jewelry/coin/bar demand.

Given macro uncertainty at present, and ever-lower sovereign debt yields, it is reasonable to expect that will happen.

Have a terrific holiday weekend

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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