Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) What drove the market?
In his speech to the nation Tuesday night, Trump said he had “great respect” for Chinese President Xi Jinping, adding that the two leaders are working on a new trade deal, while insisting that any agreement “include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade deficit and protect American jobs.”
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, confirmed that he and U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer will travel to Beijing next week to continue negotiations over the continuing trade dispute, as the administration-imposed March 1 deadline for a deal approaches, after which the president has threatened to expand tariffs on Chinese imports.
Trump reiterated a call for an infrastructure plan, but unlike last year didn’t put a price tag on it. The president also vowed to build a proposed border wall, but stopped short of declaring a national emergency. The markets are paying close attention to negotiations around the wall, with a stopgap compromise that reopened the government last month after a 35-day partial shutdown due to run out in about a week and a half.
Investors continued to sort through corporate earnings, while taking a widely expected slowdown in profit growth in stride. A dovish turn by the Federal Reserve last week and optimism over prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal have been credited for fueling a strong rebound for stocks after a fourth-quarter plunge.
U.S. manufacturing productivity rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.1% growth in the third quarter, the Labor Department reported. Data on overall productivity growth has yet to be released, due to the lingering effects of the government shutdown.
The U.S. trade deficit in November fell to $49.3 billion, below the October level of $55.5 billion in October and the consensus expectation of $53.7 billion, per a MarketWatch poll of economists.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 24,547.43.
The projected upper bound is: 26,461.83.
The projected lower bound is: 24,355.80.
The projected closing price is: 25,408.81.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 96.6952. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 127.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERG closed down -21.219 at 25,390.301. Volume was 32% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 24,951.82 24,212.86 24,995.83
Volatility: 13 28 20
Volume: 350,865,152 368,792,224 327,858,144
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERG is currently 1.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .DJI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.