Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) Trade Wars Don’t Matter for the Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Averageticked up 5.78 points to 25,322.31, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.1% to 2782, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 14.41 points, or 0.2%, to 7659.93.
Of course, the meeting ended badly enough that a trade war between the U.S. and its allies is a real possibility. The market, however, refuses to price one in. There’s a good reason for that. DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas notes that while the headlines were “dramatic,” the markets “already know this drill.” Colas argues that just as investors price in a “Fed put”–a central bank backstop if the markets start to tumble–they’re also pricing in a trade-policy put. If U.S. equity markets start to suffer from too much White House bluster on the matter, so the thinking here goes, the president will have no choice but to back off,” Colas says. “True or not, the idea explains the muted market response to date.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 24,725.35.
The projected upper bound is: 26,010.93.
The projected lower bound is: 24,682.46.
The projected closing price is: 25,346.70.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 91.6434. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 86 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERAGE closed up 5.781 at 25,322.311. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 24,872.06 24,525.19 24,130.10
Volatility: 17 17 18
Volume: 338,090,016 351,460,896 370,478,016
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERAGE is currently 4.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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