Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rally expected
With jobs growth and household balance sheets at record highs, the U.S. is arguably in a better position than China in any given time frame.
The growing number of defaults in China has placed more pressure on the domestic market and the authorities to achieve a deal with the U.S.
A full-scale trade agreement is crucial for both countries in the short-term as it would alleviate significant pressure from the Chinese economy and strengthen the rally of the Dow Jones and the U.S. stock market in general.
The stock market of China and the rest of Asia are recovering in a period during which the outcome of the trade deals remains uncertain.
The Trump administration has publicly expressed its intent to consider a 60-day extension on the March 1 deadline, a move that could destabilize major markets.
However, the Chinese market has rebounded strongly in the last 24 hours, demonstrating the growing confidence of investors in the prospect of the ongoing trade talks.
Baird vice chairman for equities Patric Spencer said that the fear around the result of the trade talks has been overblown. With the newly adopted patient approach by the Federal Reserve, the executive stated that the market is in a decent place to maintain its momentum.
“The market has been worried about the China tariffs but Trump wants a deal and a lot of the fears are generally overblown. The more patient terminology from the Fed has been fairly accommodative for markets so far.”
Recently, as Admisi strategist Marc Ostwald said, investors have begun to focus on the positives over potentially negative factors that could lead the stock market to the downside.
Similarly, Direxion Investments managing director Paul Brigandi said last week that investors in the U.S. market have been trading based on momentum and the strong performance of the Dow Jones.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 24,705.70.
The projected upper bound is: 26,916.58.
The projected lower bound is: 24,852.19.
The projected closing price is: 25,884.39.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 6 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.5738. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 164.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 31 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERG closed up 443.859 at 25,883.250. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 25,366.18 24,250.37 25,036.67
Volatility: 15 28 20
Volume: 282,513,568 361,989,792 323,518,880
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERG gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
DJ INDU AVERG is currently 3.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .DJI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.