Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) last bear market started in December 2015 and ended 3 months later
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has entered its first bear market in nearly three years, sending a warning sign to Wall Street that the slowdown in overseas economies may be spilling over into the U.S.
The Dow transports DJT, -3.15% tumbled 297.81 points, or 3.2%, to 9,147.66 on Wednesday, the lowest close since Aug. 25, 2017, with losses accelerating after the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The main culprit was FedEx Corp.’s stock FDX, -12.16% , which plunged 12.2% to account for about half of the index’s loss.
The selloff put the transports tracker 20.9% below its Sept. 14 record close of 11,570.84.
Many on Wall Street define a bear market as a decline of 20% or more on a closing basis from a bull-market peak. The last bear market for the transports started on Dec. 18, 2015 and ended on March 17, 2016.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 24,992.36.
The projected upper bound is: 24,297.99.
The projected lower bound is: 22,222.80.
The projected closing price is: 23,260.40.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.9385. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 37 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -136.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERAGE closed down -351.980 at 23,323.660. Volume was 54% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 24,194.76 25,048.67 25,067.99
Volatility: 21 26 19
Volume: 404,217,568 376,868,352 333,619,584
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERAGE is currently 7.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.