Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) is about 1.5% from a record as of Friday’s close

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) is about 1.5% from a record as of Friday’s close

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) is about 1.5% from a record as of Friday’s close

Is it time for Wall Street to break out the Dow 27,000 hats that were summarily shelved back in October as a stock-market rally ran out of steam?

It is hard to say for certain, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.15%nonetheless, is on the verge of not just a fresh psychological milestone but also its first record in six months.

As of Friday’s close, the Dow stood about 1.5% shy of its record close at 26,828.39 that was put in on Oct. 3. That all-time high gave way to a global equity rout widely blamed on a combination of worries about the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the unresolved tariff conflict with China.

The U.S. economy added 196,000 new jobs last month and the unemployment rate held at a 50-year low at 3.8%, exceeding economists’s consensus forecast for 179,000 polled by MarketWatch. The report ease some fears of a dramatic economic slowdown after hiring in February petered out to 20,000—the smallest gain in 17 months.

Meanwhile, beyond the Dow, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.46% sits about 1.3% short of its Sept. 20 peak and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.59% which fell into a bear market at its lows from its Aug. 29 peak, is about 2.1% off its record.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 26,973.51.

The projected lower bound is: 25,951.34.

The projected closing price is: 26,462.43.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 91.9427. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 134.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

DJ INDU AVERG closed up 40.359 at 26,424.990. Volume was 32% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
26,427.56126,487.57026,370.82026,424.990 229,551,520

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 25,991.16 25,640.11 25,222.53
Volatility: 9 13 20
Volume: 269,743,456 306,154,304 317,083,936

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

DJ INDU AVERG is currently 4.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .DJI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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