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Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) Futures Surge As Investors Focus on Slowing Coronavirus Fatality Rates

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) Futures Surge As Investors Focus on Slowing Coronavirus Fatality Rates

U.S. equity futures bounced higher Monday, while global stocks booked solid gains, as investors focused on data that suggested coronavirus deaths were slowing as the pandemic entered its third month of outbreak in major economies around the world.

Italy, the European epicenter of the virus outbreak since late February, said fatalities have fallen to the lowest levels in at least five days, while the death toll in neighbouring France, where citizens have been enduring shelter-in-place orders for the past three weeks, may also be nearing a plateau. Spain, as well, recorded its fourth consecutive day of declining fatalities in Europe’s fourth-largest economy.

Alongside the trillions in cash and support pledged by governments and central banks around the world, including some $6 trillion from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Congress, investors are starting to look towards the tail end of the global pandemic, which has taken the lives of nearly 70,000 people around the world since it was first identified in late January.

Still, even with death rates slowing in the state of New York, where more than half of the country’s fatalities have been recorded, and encouraging predictions from President Donald Trump, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams issued a stark warning Sunday that the worst is still yet to come.

“This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives, quite frankly,”he told Fox News on Sunday This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized.”

“It’s going to be happening all over the country. And I want America to understand that,” he added.

Wall Street, nonetheless, looks prepared to enter the Easter-shortened week with a bullish outlook, as futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average suggest a 826 point opening bell gain and those linked to the S&P 500, which is still around 26% south of its February 19 peak, are indicating a 103 point advance for the broader benchmark,

Global oil prices were also active Monday following a decision from OPEC leaders to delay a planned emergency meeting until later in the week amid ongoing negotiations between Russia and Saudi Arabia over production cuts.

The proposed cuts, first mooted by President Trump last Thursday, added rocket fuel to oil markets as crude rose by a record 31.7% for the week based on its Friday closing price.

However, with Trump now threatening tariffs on non-U.S. imports, and questions remaining as to the size and length of any output limit agreement among OPEC members, oil prices retreated in early Monday trading.

“If I have to do tariffs on oil coming from outside or if I have to do something to protect our tens of thousands of energy workers and our great companies that produce all these jobs, I’ll do whatever I have to do,” Trump told reporters at the White House Sunday.

Brent crude futures contracts for June delivery, the benchmark reference for around 60% of global crude purchases, were last seen $1.12 higher from their Friday closing price in New York and changing hands at $32.99 per barrel in early European trading.

WTI crude futures for May delivery, which are more tightly connected to domestic gas prices, were marked 79 cents lower at $27.55 per barrel.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 25,392.71.

The projected upper bound is: 23,817.10.

The projected lower bound is: 17,963.66.

The projected closing price is: 20,890.38.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.7872. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

DJ INDU AVERG closed down -360.910 at 21,052.529. Volume was 12% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 90% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
21,285.93021,447.81120,863.09021,052.529 451,624,608
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 21,234.05 25,508.12 26,829.20
Volatility: 89 83 43
Volume: 633,312,576 524,986,336 325,746,176

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

DJ INDU AVERG is currently 21.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

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