Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) failed to hit a record high

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) failed to hit a record high

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) failed to hit a record high

The Dow failed to hit a record high on Monday, finishing the day just barely in the green.

The Dow (INDU) closed flat, up only 8 points. It sits 0.4%, or 101 points, below the all-time closing high it recorded in October, according to Refinitiv. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) both finished lower, down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The S&P hit a closing record Thursday.

The Dow could be “thousands of points” higher, if the “Fed had gotten it right,” claimed President Donald Trump in a tweet earlier on Monday. The president has long criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, which he believes poses a hurdle to US growth.

At the start of the trading day, stocks had seemed unfazed by lingering trade worries and the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran on Monday. But sentiment soured throughout the day. Trump announced “hard-hitting” sanctions against Iran earlier, after tweeting about doing so over the weekend. Last week, Iran shot down a US military drone.

But the situation in the Middle East is keeping oil prices higher.
Last week, US oil futures jumped more than 9%. Futures settled 0.8% higher at $57.90 a barrel on Monday, according to CME. In a tweet, Trump said although many countries rely on oil from the region, “we don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world!”

Gold remains a hot commodity. Geopolitical worries, paired with a weaker US dollar, are giving the safe haven metal a significant boost. After rallying more than 4% last week, gold futures settled up 1.3% at 1,414.30 an ounce, according to CME.

Gold breached the $1,400 level late last week, marking a near six-year high.
For the week ahead, market watchers will be all about the G20 summit in Japan, as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet and talk trade on the summit sidelines.

Even if no deal is reached immediately, their meeting could set the tone for the next phase of the trade spat.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 27,334.44.

The projected lower bound is: 26,144.02.

The projected closing price is: 26,739.23.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.3859. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 121.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

DJ INDU AVERG closed up 8.408 at 26,727.539. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 93% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
26,727.60926,806.52026,723.36926,727.539 232,389,232

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 26,353.16 26,031.04 25,450.24
Volatility: 9 15 20
Volume: 260,864,512 285,811,584 320,685,216

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

DJ INDU AVERG is currently 5.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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