Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) Awaits Trade Data
Dow Jones futures rose 0.5% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.65%. Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.
Washington and Beijing are close to a final China trade deal that would lift some or all of the tariffs imposed last year by the two countries. China also would ease duties and other restrictions on many U.S. goods. Beijing wants U.S. tariffs removed right away, while the U.S. wants to phase that in as China lives up to its commitments. Ending the China trade war, at least in the short run, would be good for the global economy and stocks. But has a China trade deal already been priced in by the current stock market rally?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower for the first time in 9 weeks Friday. The streak of higher weekly closes was the longest for the Dow since 1995. Still, the index trades slightly below key technical resistance and data in the week ahead may dictate price action moving forward.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 25,069.52.
The projected upper bound is: 26,962.89.
The projected lower bound is: 25,187.08.
The projected closing price is: 26,074.99.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.0179. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERG closed up 110.320 at 26,026.320. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 25,968.89 24,526.97 25,106.46
Volatility: 11 24 20
Volume: 285,572,800 341,544,736 321,257,504
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERG is currently 3.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .DJI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods.