U.S. equity futures traded with caution Thursday, while the dollar hovered near a two-year low and gold hit new record highs, as investors braced for fresh jobs data and looked for a breakthrough from stimulus talks in Washington.
U.S. stocks look set to trade cautiously until that time frame is clarified, futures contracts suggest, with yesterday’s rally fading into a more cautious session Friday ahead of earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb and ViacomCBS .
Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average suggest a 120 point dip while those linked to the S&P 500 are indicating a 15 point pullback.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields were last seen trading modestly lower at 0.518% while the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, edged 0.08% higher to trade at 92.95. Gold, meanwhile, held near its all-time high at $2,047.00 after breaching the $2,000 per ounce mark earlier this week.
A bigger-than-expected 7.4 million barrel decline in domestic U.S. crude stocks, published yesterday by the Energy Department, was offset by data showing the highest levels of gasoline inventories in nearly four decades, suggesting demand waned considerably over the summer driving period, putting pressure on global oil prices in the overnight session.
WTI contracts for September delivery, the U.S. benchmark, 48 lower from their Wednesday close in New York and were changing hands at $41.68 per barrel in early European dealing while Brent contracts for October, the new global benchmark, were seen 25 cents lower at $44.92 per barrel.
In global stock markets, European shares trended lower, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.9% and Britain’s FTSE 100 slumping 1.9% after today’s Bank of England rate decision at 7:00 am London time, which made no changes to the central banks key policy rates but forecast a slower-than-expected recovery for the region’s third-largest economy.
Overnight in Asia, the softening U.S. jobs data, as well as the deadlock on fresh stimulus from Congress, kept the Nikkei 225 in the red despite stronger-than-expected quarter earnings from Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker, while the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan index bumped 0.3% higher into the final hours of trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average represents 30 large and well-known U.S. companies covering all industries with the exception of transportation and utilities. Stocks are selected by editors of The Wall Street Journal. The index is price weighted.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 28,513.16.
The projected lower bound is: 25,978.13.
The projected closing price is: 27,245.65.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 8 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.5848. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 170.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
DJ INDU AVERG closed up 373.049 at 27,201.520. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 57% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 26,924.779 27,221.670 26,924.779 27,201.520 369,984,608
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 26,606.22 26,217.69 26,227.90 Volatility: 16 31 48 Volume: 404,993,280 411,935,776 392,677,632
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
DJ INDU AVERG gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
DJ INDU AVERG is currently 3.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.