The latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows most eligible voters expect President Trump to be reelected, and majority are ‘unhappy‘ about that.
Registered voters predict Donald Trump’s reelection, but less than 33% would be happy about it, according to a national poll released Thursday.
The latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll also reveals that Republicans favor a populist direction over traditional conservatism by nearly 2 to 1, while Republican-leaning voters slightly favor a more traditional path, according to a USC statement.
Most Republicans are supportive of President Trump’s influence on the party and the GOP’s move toward populism, and they are happily optimistic that he will win re-election in Y 2020, according to the latest poll. And while the vast majority of Democrat-affiliated voters would be unhappy if he won a 2nd term, eligible voters gave Donald Trump a greater than 50% chance of winning in Y 2020.
When asked about their wishes for the future of the Republican Party, 44% of all Republican-affiliated voters said it should be more populist, stressing strong borders, protecting jobs from competition overseas and standing tough against crime and social disorder.
Fully, 25% said the GOP should become more traditionally conservative by focusing on fiscal responsibility, defense and pro-business policies. Another 13% said the GOP should stay as it is and 16% said they do not know.
“Trump owns the Republican Party,” said the director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, which oversees the poll. “That is the bottom line of this. They like him, they like his direction. He has got more trouble with people who might lean Republican but who might not be hardcore Republican.”
The poll’s survey director noted: “One out of 5 Republicans and leaners would like to see President Trump have less influence on the party. These dissenters tend to be college educated, younger and only loosely affiliated with the party, but the majority voted for Trump in 2016 and he may be in trouble if they don’t come out to vote for him again.”
The poll shows GOP-affiliated voters with college degrees split between a preference for conservatism or populism (40% to 37%), compared to those without college degrees, who prefer populism by more than 2 to 1 (47% to 21%). Support for the populist path was higher among Republican affiliates in rural (48%) and suburban (46%) areas, Vs 39% of city dwellers.
“I don’t know if populists are pushing Trump or if Trump is strengthening the populists,” said the, co-director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. “There is no question that the dominant force in the party is Trump-style populism.”
Republican-leaning voters were split, slightly favoring a more traditional conservatism, with 36% saying the party should be more traditionally conservative; another third (31%) prefer a more populist approach and 28% say they do not know, an of the GOP-leaning voters say the party should stay as it is.
This poll brings a Big Q into sharp focus: Will suburban Republicans and college-educated white independents who are uneasy with Donald Trump swallow the bitter pill of re-electing him, or the very bitter pill of voting for a very progressive Democrat if Joe Biden loses Iowa, New Hampshire and the nomination?
When asked how they would feel if Donald Trump were elected to a 2nd term, 18% of all eligible voters say they would be completely happy and 42% say they would be completely unhappy, and 74% of Republicans and 37% of GOP leaners said they would be completely or mostly happy, compared with 15% of unaffiliated and other party voters and only 2% of affiliated Democrats.
An overwhelming 9 out of 10 affiliated Democrats said they would be completely or mostly unhappy if Donald Trump wins again.
This poll says that 1 huge section of the country is going to be really unhappy if Donald Trump wins and another section will be unhappy if the Democratic nominee wins. The nation is polarized now that it is this: “I’m right and you are evil.”
All eligible voters were asked to rate on a scale of 0 to 100 how likely it was that Donald Trump would win the Y 2020 election. On average, all voters rated their confidence in a 2nd term for Donald Trump at 54 out of 100.
Republicans rated their confidence in President Trump’s re-election at 74 out of 100, compared to the average of 40 among Democrats, indicating a 60% likelihood that the Democrats believe that their yet-unchosen nominee will win.
“Having worked in the Democratic vineyards for years, I will tell you that Democrats are classically `the sky will fall’ people,” the poll’s co-director said. “They worry and worry and worry.”
The poll was conducted from 12 July to 11 August 2019, with 5,390 eligible voters, including 2,074 who are affiliated with the Republican party. The voters are members of USC Dornsife’s Center for Economic and Social Research’s Understanding America Study probability-based Internet panel.
The poll was conducted online in respondents’ choice of English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error is +/-2 for all eligible voters and +/-3 for Republican-affiliated voters.
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