DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (.GDAXI) upside move could take a hit if EU CPI data misses expectations

DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (.GDAXI) upside move could take a hit if EU CPI data misses expectations

DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (.GDAXI) upside move could take a hit if EU CPI data misses expectations

Germany equities were lower at the close on Friday, as losses in the Consumer & Cyclical, Technology and Industrials sectors propelled shares lower. At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX fell 0.54%, while the MDAX index declined 0.89%, and the TecDAX index lost 1.08%. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by 463 to 245 and 72 ended unchanged on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was up 1.00% to 20.29. Dax index on Friday continued its decline for second consecutive session influenced by weak macro economic data. Germany continues to produce weak economic readings, weighing on investor confidence. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, as Manufacturing PMI for November was the latest in a string of soft manufacturing releases.

Cues from Major Global Equity Market Hint at Positive Price Action Today

The global trade war has resulted in higher tariffs on German products, putting a damper on German exports and the manufacturing sector. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, a slowdown in Germany is bad news for the entire Eurozone, which has struggled in the second half of 2018.  Overall weak macro data influenced bearish investor sentiment greatly impacting performance of equities on last trading session of the week. Asian share markets began the week on a cautious note after soft economic data from China and Europe added to evidence of cooling global growth and reinforced anxiety over the broadening impact of international trade frictions. Investors are now exercising high level of caution over their investment and trading activities as they await Fed rate hike forward guidance for 2019 which is having its bearish outlook increase with each passing data as macro data continues to disappoint in US.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11,498.22.

The projected upper bound is: 11,125.83.

The projected lower bound is: 10,371.57.

The projected closing price is: 10,748.70.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.6410. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

XETRA DAX PF closed down -93.569 at 10,772.200. Volume was 9% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10,852.99010,886.80010,700.62010,772.200 88,246,088

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,902.93 11,319.53 12,193.19
Volatility: 26 21 18
Volume: 99,917,024 100,514,504 101,413,632

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


XETRA DAX PF is currently 11.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .GDAXI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .GDAXI and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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