DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (.GDAXI) Rebounds 20% From its Coronavirus Crisis Low
Germany’s benchmark DAX Index is poised to exit a bear market that began last month, after rising 20% from last month’s low that was spurred by worries about the coronavirus pandemic.
The export-heavy gauge, which fell as much as 40% in the sell-off that began late February, has rebounded in recent weeks by indications that infection rates in parts of Europe may be nearing a peak and on positive signals from China, where the latest PMI figures pointed to a V-shaped economic recovery. The DAX advanced 3.4% as of 9:35 a.m. in Frankfurt.
“The current bounce in equity markets is banking on a rather optimistic scenario for Covid 19 infection curves and a quick revival of global economic activity. Hence it makes sense to see the DAX gauge to do better,” Frederik Hildner, a portfolio manager at Salm-Salm & Partner, said by phone. “However, not retesting the lows in the absence of major medical progress would simply be astonishing to me,” he says.
The DAX’s rebound from a March 18 closing low has been led by Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA, Infineon Technologies AG and Allianz SE, up 43%, 40%, and 39% in the period respectively.
With recent gains, the German gauge has trimmed its 2020 decline to 21%, in line with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
“The economic impact has yet to be seen and can once again thwart the recent price recovery,” says Andreas Lipkow, noting that the recent bounce is more technical then fundamental.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 11,331.81.
The projected lower bound is: 9,262.92.
The projected closing price is: 10,297.36.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.1956. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 156.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
XETRA DAX PF closed up 281.530 at 10,356.700. Volume was 22% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 9,833.28 11,518.44 12,357.26
Volatility: 52 65 36
Volume: 147,344,560 160,070,416 101,468,200
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
XETRA DAX PF gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
XETRA DAX PF is currently 16.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .GDAXI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .GDAXI and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.