Coronavirus Fears Wipe $393 Billion Off Shanghai: SSE Composite Index (.SSEC) Stock Market
Investors erased $393 billion from China’s benchmark stock index on Monday, sold the yuan and dumped commodities as fears about the spreading coronavirus and its economic impact drove selling on the first day of trade in China since the Lunar New Year.
A nearly 8% plunge on the Shanghai composite index was its biggest daily fall in more than four years. The Chinese yuan blew past the 7-per-dollar mark and Shanghai-traded commodities from palm oil to copper hit their maximum down limits.
The wipeout came even as the central bank made its biggest cash injection to the financial system since 2004 and despite apparent regulatory moves to curb selling.
The total number of deaths in China from the coronavirus rose to 361 by Sunday, compared with 17 on January 23, when Chinese markets last traded.
“You wanted to know what a real decoupling from China might look like, or what a ‘What if everyone just stayed at home and didn’t buy anything?’ economic thought-experiment looks like? Well here you are, folks,” Rabobank strategist Michael Every said in an afternoon note.
The yuan began onshore trade at its weakest this year and was down 1.2% by the afternoon, sliding past the symbolic 7-per-dollar level to close at 7.0257.
Shanghai-traded oil, iron ore, copper and soft commodities contracts all posted sharp drops, catching up with sliding global prices.
The new virus has created alarm because it is spreading quickly, much about it is unknown, and authorities’ drastic response is likely to drag on economic growth. “This will last for some time,” said Iris Pang, Greater China economst at ING.
“It’s uncertain whether factory workers, or how many of them, will return,” she said. “We haven’t yet seen corporate earnings since the (spread of the) coronavirus. Restaurants and retailers may have very little sales.”
More than 2,500 stocks fell by the daily limit of 10%. The Shanghai Composite closed down 7.7% at 2,746.6, its lowest since August and a modest recovery from early trade, when it was down nearly 9%.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said the stocks plunge had irrational or even panic elements, triggered by herd behaviour, in a newspaper commentary published after markets closed.
The sell-off cast a pall over Asia, though losses were contained because a slide had been expected. Amid the selldown, the PBOC had injected $173.81 billion into money markets through reverse bond repurchase agreements, the largest such move since 2004, according to DBS analysts. It also cut the interest rate on those short-term funding facilities by 10 basis points.
China’s securities regulator moved to limit short selling and urged mutual fund managers not to sell shares unless they are facing investor redemptions, persons aware of the matter said.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 2,997.89.
The projected lower bound is: 2,752.93.
The projected closing price is: 2,875.41.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 5 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.
A gravestone doji occurred. This often signifies a top (the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the signal).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.7843. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
SSE COMPOSITE closed unchanged at 2,875.964. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 199% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 2,915.16 2,975.07 2,954.37
Volatility: 53 27 22
Volume: 24,575,322,112 20,799,809,536 19,534,485,504
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
SSE COMPOSITE is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .SSEC at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .SSEC and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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