The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in January to 125.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 114.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

2016

2017

6-month

Nov

Dec

Jan

Jul to Jan

Leading Index

124.1

r

124.7

r

125.5

p

  Percent Change

0.2

r

0.5

0.6

p

1.6

  Diffusion

70.0

85.0

85.0

90.0

Coincident Index

114.0

114.3

114.4

p

  Percent Change

0.0

0.3

0.1

p

0.8

  Diffusion

75.0

100.0

75.0

87.5

Lagging Index

122.7

r

123.3

r

123.7

p

  Percent Change

0.2

r

0.5

r

0.3

p

1.6

  Diffusion

64.3

92.9

64.3

71.4

p  Preliminary     r  Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2010

Source:  The Conference Board

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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