Commodities Briefing: Hard and Soft
Commentary: Commodities mostly look stable to weak medium term. Some sideways consolidation near term is possible with a possible test of respective resistances in Crude Oil. PE
Crude Oil and Metals
NYMEX WTI Crude at 65.01) and ICE Brent Crude 71.59 are up a bit from Friday’s close in NY. WTI Crude could test resistance at 67, and if holds see weakness medium term to 64-62. Brent Crude is ranged within 70-73 and can continue to all this week.
Gold at 1191.80 looks ranged within 1160-1200 this week. While it trades below 1200, the precious Yellow metal looks weak to 1160-1150 medium term.
Copper at 2.6460 may test 1st resistance at 2.70. A further fall in the Shanghai composite index could bring down the Red metal’s prices to 2.60, 2.70 is a Key mark this week.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agriculture futures finished higher on the ended 17 August on declining crop conditions and news about trade talks with China.
The most active contract for December Corn rose 7c weekly, or 1.88%, to 3.7875 bu.
December Wheat delivery went up 10.25c, or 1.8c weekly, to 5.7975 bu.
November Soybeans saw a 3c surge, or 3.6%, to 8.9275 bu.
Last Monday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest crop condition report, saying Corn, Wheat and Soybean rated good or excellent were about 1% down from the previous week.
A Chinese delegation led by Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will visit the US in late August to talk with the U.S. counterpart on bi-lateral economic and trade issues of their own concern, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) announced on Thursday.
China is the Top buyer in global Soybean market.
Hopes among traders and farmers that the 2 sides work out a formula to avoid further escalation of trade tensions led to the rise of Soybean prices.
Additional support came from a soy crush report which showed US soy processors consumed a record large amount of Soybean in July.
CBOT Wheat futures gained nearly 2% weekly on declining world supply due to adverse weather conditions. Drought has hit France, Germany, Black Sea area and Australia, and Aussie forecasts are indicating a dryer-than-average September ahead.
As concern over major Wheat exporters’ yields continued, futures were further driven up by talks that Russian government is attempting to cap exports in a bid to keep bread prices reasonable.
Similar rumors came out of Ukraine during the prior week, saying the government there will limit its Wheat export sales. But an official denial gave some relief to the soaring prices.
As a result, Wheat prices will probably keep high for some time, and upside targets remain above 6.25 bu, said agriculture analysts at a Chicago-based agricultural research firm.
CBOT Corn futures also posted moderate gains last week, but with little significant news concerning the grain.
Most US Corn producers will be harvesting sooner than usual, and expectations are for record yield.
Have a terrific week
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