Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Prediction Edition

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Prediction Edition


Again, hitting my targets, the sentiment is high and the momentum is Strong in here.

Here is the predictions: In this earning scenario we are likely to see the S&P 500 at 3,257 in Y 2018, archive it.

The market continues finding new leaders as it moves up.

The big cap benchmarks: DJIA and S&P 500 are extended in here in terms of the number of rallies after besting the 50-Day MA in September, 2017, as well as the percentage above the 200-Day SMA.

Those technical characteristics often lead to a correction below the 10 and 20-Day EMA, more like the 50-Day MA.

So far, thought this strong Bull action has not allowed a pull back or a correction.

It will come, a caution flag is waving that the sellers are testing the waters in here. It does not mean they will succeed, but they are trying.

With that in mind we here at HeffX-LTN will continue playing the Northside with good new plays while letting current positions run until we see them stalling.

Then when the inevitable downturn begins we have already banked the gains and will take positions off the table with in many cases even more gain, and the close newer positions struggling at support.

Bulls are running

We have new pattern set up that look great and have time before to move up before earnings reports, 1 is RACE. There are 2 we do have a problem with holding through earnings if they start to make the move we want ahead of time. On some of the core (long term) positions, we will look to bank some more money ahead of results if they have put in good moves, then come back in after the adjustments.

Tune out the Noise

A lot is being made about the US government shutdown but it has little actual effect.

The Big Q: Why?

The Big A: the US government is the not the main driver in our economy, as government spending does not have a major impact on growth, and a shutdown might help spur more growth as long as Hussein Obama era regulations are being shredded, as we know they are.


Earnings are the real impact in the market, and after a super response to Q-3 earnings The Trump Rally continued to present day.

The Q-4 season has started and the reaction to the stocks announcing is not great but not bad either. Plus, the Bears are asleep in here.

Remember, stay focused, it is your money and your responsibility


The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 11.27; -0.95
VXN: 16.15; -0.80
VXO: 10.41; -0.63

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.86; +0.03

The Bulls Vs The Bears

We are at cycle highs for the Bulls, and cycle lows for the Bears, this is always a flash caution light

The Bulls are at 66.7 Vs 64.4 last

The Bears are at 12.7 Vs 13.5 last


Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 26,071.72


25,697 the 10-Day EMA
The 20-Day EMA: 25,340
24,835 from Dec 2017
The 50-Day EMA 24,609
24,312 from Dec 2017
23,602 the Nov 2017 high
23,608 a Nov 2017 high
22,420 the Sept 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 22,422


S&P 500 close: 2810.30


2751 from Jan 2018
The 20-Day EMA: 2741
2694 a Dec 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2680
2597 the Nov 2017 high
2569 the upper channel line from 9 March 2009
The 200-Day SMA: 2508


NAS Comp close: 7336.38


7,000 from Dec 2017
The 50-Day EMA: 6962
6914 the Nov 2017 high
6796 a Nov 2017 high
6694 the Y 2016 trendline
6641 the Oct 2017 high
6477 the Sept 2017 high
6461 the Jul 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 6455

Have a terrific weekend.

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