Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


This is a Big data week, beginning with ISM Services Monday followed by US jobs data Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Last Friday bounce was on some Short covering and strong buy orders, it may continue the move up to start this week.

The market sold off from an ABCD Southside pattern and it is possible the downdraft is over. But, after the steam is over, a final test to the February low is on the cards.

Market leadership looks good, it could lead the indexes higher.

That could well happen, as the market moves to test the prior low and bounce on the setups.

The Big Q: How will stocks open Monday?

The Big A: Could continue up, and if it does, note how it holds, for the day or longer knowing any bounce in here is a relief move.

Currently at 6.11a EST the futures are at: S&P 500 Vs fair value: -9.80. NAS Comp Vs fair value: -12.80

The likelihood is that the market is not through the the selling yet.

Consider this: the bounce marks a new all-time high, then falls then it tells us the the selloff is over.

You always play the market that has the most probabilities, and that is a test to the prior lows as I see it.

Pay attention, be prepared.

Savvy participants are not playing wildly, as it is too easy to get caught in the volatility if unseasoned.

So, when the break South happen play will want to be to the Southside near term, then when a new move North starts and the setups are clear that is a time to put more money in.

And, if the move South does not come and the bottom is set, play leaders to the Northside, and if the market breaks out, more money goes to work.

Remember, always take what the market gives, it is your money and so, your responsibility.


The Bulls Vs the Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 19.59; -2.88
VXN: 21.53; -3.21
VXO: 19.08; -1.36

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.16; -0.13

The Bulls Vs The  Bears: The Bulls have really drop over the past 3 weeks.

The Bulls are at: 48.1 Vs 48.5 last

The Bears are at: 14.4 Vs 14.6 last


Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 24,538

24,835 from Dec 2017
The 50-Day EMA: 25,000
25391 the 61% Fibo sell off retracement
25,521 from Feb 2018
25,800 from Feb 2018
26,000 from Jan 2018
26,439 from Jan 2018
26.617 the Jan 2018 all-time high

23,608 from Nov 2017
23,360 the Feb 2018 low
The 200-Day SMA: 23,077


S&P 500 close: 2691.25

2694 a Dec 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2713
2744 the 61% Fibo sell off retracement
2751 from Jan 2018
2762 from Feb 2018
2789 from Feb 2018
2808 from Jan 2018
2850 from Jan 2018
2873 the Jan 2018 all-time high

2597 the Nov 2017 high
2584 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
The 200-Day SMA: 2561


NAS Comp close: 7257.87

7300 from Jan 2018
7400 from Jan 2018
7438 a Feb 2018 high
7506 the Jan 2018 all-time high

7240 from Feb 2018
The 50-Day EMA: 7145
6980 from Dec 2017
6914 a Nov 2017 high
6796 from Nov 2017
6641 the Oct 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 6635

Have a terrific week

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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