Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


I hit my marks again last week on the clear break North.

Friday’s light volume action may be countered or at test Monday, that is not a bad thing.

There is an old trader’s adage: Buy Monday, sell on Friday has truth to it. Often we see a late week move tested early week, providing better entry points.

We saw Friday run North by 1.22%+ across the indices,a dip to test is welcome by traders in playing the this recovery rally.

So, a pullback Monday into Tuesday will be a buying opportunity, as long as the pullback does not see huge volume.

Volume has not been a Key ingredient on this relief move, but if the move is going to take on and Extension of the Trump Bull rally it will need to show us strong volume on breakout moves.

In new high zones, it must show strong volume.

The Big Q: Why?

The Big A: Because this is not Schoolmarm Yellen’s Fed anymore and the general idea among savvy people is that the Fed under Chairman Powell may not be such an easy money FOMC table.

Always take what the Fed gives.

This market has much more scope to the Northside, meaning: take advantage of. So, a test early in the week helps set up for playing the move back up when it resumes.

If there is no test, OK, but do not chase the gap up if it happens.

It is your money, so your responsibility.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 16.49; -2.23
VXN: 18.16; -2.75
VXO: 14.92; -2.85

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.01; -0.11. Shorts covered, as stocks broke higher last week.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

The Bulls broke below 50, the 1st time since 2-H of Y 2016.

The Bears are still hibernating.

The Bulls are at: 48.5 Vs 51.9 last

The Bears are at: 14.6 Vs 14.4 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 25,309.99

25391 the 61% Fibo retracement
25521 from Feb 2018
26,000 from Jan 2018
26,439 from Jan 2018
26617 the Jan 2018 all-time high

The 50-Day EMA: 24,993
24,835 from Dec 2017
23,608 a Nov 2017 high
23,602 a Nov 2017 high
23,360 the Feb 2018 low
The 200-Day SMA: 22,974


S&P 500 close: 2747.30

2744 the 61% Fibo retracement of recent correction
2751 from Jan 2018
2762 from Feb 2018
2808 from Jan 2018
2850 from Jan 2018
2873 the Jan 2018 all-time high

The 50-Day EMA: 2711
2694 a Dec 2017 high
2597 the Nov 2017 high
2584 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
The 200-Day SMA: 2553


NAS Comp close: 7337.39

7400 from Jan 2018
7506 the Jan 2018 all-time high

7300 from Jan 2018
7240, from Feb 2018
The 50-Day EMA: 7114
6918 from Nov 2017
6914 from Nov 2017
6796 from Nov 2017
6641 the Oct 2017  high
6630 the Feb 2018 correction low
The 200-Day SMA: 6607

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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