Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Again, hitting my targets, no predictions yet, but the sentiment is high and the momentum is Strong in here.

DJIA look Very Bullish to me 26,000 in sight, that is the Key resistance.

DJIA +228.46 at 25803.19, NAS Comp +49.28 at 7261.06, S&P 500 +18.68 at 2786.24

  • NAS Comp: +5.2% YTD
  • DJIA: +4.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: +4.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +3.7% YTD

The Big Q: Will the managed money keep coming in?

The Big A: It came in heavy into large caps last week and is likely to continue to come in


The Technical Outlook

Pundits and talking heads are spouting about a blow off Top. That happens when the market surges straight up.

The gainers get larger until all of the managed sideline money is in and there is nothing left to continue the buying on strong volume, but the breadth get narrower, and if  breadth is narrow on the run, that is a flashing Yellow light, we have not seen that in here.

The move stalls like an airplane, rolls over, and dips 3-5% or corrects 8-12%.

That is the market set to blow off, not seeing that in here.

So, the rule is let the profits run, be prudent and take some off of the table, dry powder is always good to have, to buy the dips.

Remember, it is your money and so, your responsibility.


The Bulls Vs The Bears

VIX: 10.16; +0.28
VXN: 14.57; -0.20
VXO: 9.30; +0.42

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.74; +0.02

The Bulls Vs The Bears

The Bulls ran North matching the cycle high.

The Bears broke South to a cycle low.

The Bulls are at 64.4 Vs 61.9 last

The Bears are at 13.5 Vs 15.2 last


Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 25803.19




25,295.87 the early Jan 2018 high
24,835 the mid-Dec high
The 20-Day EMA: 24,688
24,312 the trend line
The 50-Day EMA: 24,118
23,608 the Nov 2017 high
22,420 the Sept 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 22,194


S&P 500 close: 2786.24




2743.15 the early Jan 2018 high
The 20-Day EMA: 2682
2694 the Dec 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2637
2597 the Nov 2017 high
2549 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 the Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2490


NAS Comp close: 7261.06




7,171.6 the early Jan 2018 high
7,000 a Dec 2017 high
6914 the Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 6842
6796 the Nov 2017 high
6660 the Y 2016 trendline
6641 the Oct 2017 high
6477 the Sept 2017 high
6461 the Jul 2017 high
6450 the Sept 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 6394

I have published this RedRoadmaster Report weekly on the 1st market day for the past 19 years, this begins the 20th year.

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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