Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
I hit my predictions for Y 2017, but I will not make any early ones for this year until the last week in January or the 1st week in February, although the trend is clearly up.
On the year
- NAS Comp: +28.2% YTD
- DJIA: +25.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +19.4% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400 Index: +14.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +13.1% YTD
What I will say on this 2nd day of January 2018 is that I believe the US stock market will continue to rises, if we get that healthy correction of between 9 and 14% it will be higher that if the correction does not occur.
From the technical outlook S&P 500 and DJIA should test to the 50 day EMA even if the overall rally or uptrend in those indices continues.
The NAS Comp is close enough to their extension to go along with them barring rotation into big techs issues again.
The small and mid-caps are not as extended as are the large caps, so the technicals favors them continuing their uptrends barring any untoward changes in managed money sentiment.
The risk/reward with The Trump Tax Cuts suggest the small and mid-caps continue to perform.
Some savvy money exited stocks for Bitcoin, Crude Oil and Gold at the end of Y 2017 and if that money does not come back into stocks in the New Year based on the Trump taxation scenario, then the equities market likely will not hit new highs again soon.
For now the direction is still North, so we hail the good times, as the trend is always our friend.
That means letting the winner continue, and use the dry powder to enter play on stocks that are set up to break out, that is what the managed money does and so do we.
Also, if the manged money leaves some areas, some Southside plays will be appropriate.
I will be watching the action closely this week, you should be too. Remember, it is your money and so, your responsibility.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 11.04; +0.86
VXN: 15.68; +1.06
VXO: 9.46; +1.03
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.11; -0.02
The Bulls Vs The Bears
The Bulls dropped but remain over 60, that is in the very optimistic range. This is a Warning, not a Timing device.
The Bulls are at: 61.9 Vs 64.2 last
The Bears are at: 15.2 Vs 15.1 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 24,719.22
24,654 1st support seen
The 20-Day EMA: 24,136
23,602 the Nov 2017 high
23,608 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 23,608
22,420 the Sept 2017 high
22,179 the Aug 2017 high
22,086 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 21,935
Dow -118.29 at 24719.22, Nasdaq -46.77 at 6903.39, S&P -13.93 at 2673.61
S&P 500 close: 2673.61
2675 the Dec 2017 high
The 20-Day EMA: 2634
2597 the Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2596
2549 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 the Aug 2017 high
2480 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2468
NAS Comp close: 6903.39
6959.96 the Dec 2017 high
6937 a Dec 2017 high
6914 the Nov 2017 high
6796 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 6737
6641 the Oct 2017 high
6589 the Y 2016 trendline
6477 the Sept 2017 high
6461 the Jul 2017 high
6450 the Sept 2017 high
6341.70 the Jun 2017 high.
The 200-Day SMA: 6320
Have a terrific New Year!
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