Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX

What we saw in the US stock market last week was not damaging to the technicals.

The DJI and S&P 500 are extended, but the action this week did not suggest they ready to roll over.

That may come as the market moves into the New Year, and we are keenly aware of the extensions of that, but we always take what the market gives.

The FAANGs and some other NAS Comp big caps have room to move North, as they based all
Summer and broke out in late October.

Yes, we saw money flowing out as the flow indicators state, but if this is as bad as it gets, that was a non event.

The Key is whether the money continues to leave or if it was only a readjustment. If net outflows continue, stocks will struggle to find a floor.

Again, so far the outflows resulted in only modest, low volume tests, notably normal tests back to
the 10-Day EMA for the indices and for leading stocks.

There are a lot of great plays set up, plays that are ready to go if traders and investors come back to play after this long Christmas Weekend.

The standouts are: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, FFIV, GOOG, PTN and PTLA.

Remember, pay attention, it is your money, so your responsibility. And always take what the market gives.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 9.90; +0.28
VXN: 12.54; -0.11
VXO: 8.45; +0.12

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.11

Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.

Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2

Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1

Last Weeks Finish

DJIA -28.23 at 24754.06, NAS Comp -5.40 at 6959.96, S&P 500 -1.23 at 2683.34

Pre-Christmas Weekend volume on the NYSE came in light at: 600-M/shares echanged

  • NAS Comp: +29.3% YTD
  • DJIA: +25.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +19.9% YTD
  • S&P 400: +14.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +13.7% YTD

 

Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 24,754.06

Resistance

None

Support
24,654 1st support seen
The 20-Day EMA: 24,136
23,602 the Nov 2017 high
23,608 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 23,608
22,420 the Sept 2017 high
22,179 the Aug 2017 high
22,086 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 21,935

 

S&P 500 close:  2683.34

Resistance

None

Support

2675 a Dec 2017 high
The 20-Day EMA: 2634
2597 the Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2596
2549 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 the Aug 2017 high
2480 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2468

 

NAS Comp close: 6959.96

Resistance

None

Support

6937 a Dec 2017 high
6914 the Nov 2017 high
6796 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 6737
6641 the Oct 2017 high
6589 the Y 2016 trendline
6477 the Sept 2017 high
6461 the Jul 2017 high
6450 the Sept 2017 high
6341.70 the Jun 2017 high.
The 200-Day SMA: 6320

 

 

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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