Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


The rising stock prices and steady increases in home values powered American household wealth to $96.9-T this Fall, the Fed said last Thursday.

US wealth has made a remarkable comeback since the Great Recession, when it dove more than $10-T to $56.2-T, not adjusted for inflation or population growth.

The median is the point where half of households are richer, and half poorer, and gives a better sense of how typical families have fared.

In Y 2016, the latest figures available, median household wealth was still 34% below its pre-recession, Y 2007 level.

Average household wealth fully recovered from the downturn and was 7% higher last year. The average figure is pulled up by very wealthy families.

The Fed’s latest figures come as Congress is considering a tax cut plan that would reduce taxes on corporations and all taxpayers.

The Fed’s Thursday report shows that US corporations currently have $2.4-T in cash.

Supporters say that a tax cut will still encourage business spending by making future investment more profitable.

What you need to know:

  1. US net worth rose $1.7-T in the July-September Quarter, extending a steady upward march in American wealth after the Great Recession eliminated about 17% of it in Y 2008.
  2. The value of Americans’ stock portfolios rose $1.1-T, and real estate values climbed $400-B. Total household wealth includes checking and savings accounts and subtracts mortgages and other debt.
  3. 10% of the wealthiest American households owned 84% of the value of American stocks in Y 2016.
  4. The average household wealth reached $667,600 in Y 2016, net worth for the median household was $78,100.
  5. The richest 1% of Americans owned nearly 40% of all wealth in Y 2016, up from almost 37% in Y 2013.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 9.58; -0.58
VXN: 14.42; -1.44
VXO: 8.54; -1.02

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.94; +0.10

The Bulls Vs The  Bears

Bulls roared back from the dip a dip 3 weeks back, but never fell below 60. That is a high level of Bulls, suggesting that a lot of money is already in the market. For now the market still is moving North.

The Big Q: Why?

The Big A: Because we all want the year-end rally to continue and to play it.

The Bulls are at 64.2 Vs 62.3 last.

The Bears are at 15.1 Vs 15.1


Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 24,329.16


24534 the all-time high

23,602 the Nov 2017 high
The 20-Day EMA: 23,875
23,608 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 23,404
22,420 the Sept 2017 high
22,179 the Aug 2017 high
22,086 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 21,846


S&P 500 close: 2651.50



The 20-Day EMA: 2616
2597 the Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2581
2549 the upper channel line from the 9 March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 the Aug 2017 high
2480 a Aug 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2461


NAS Comp close: 6840.08


6914 the Nov 2017 all-time high

6796 a Nov 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 6705
6641 the Oct 2017 high
6565 the Y 2016 trendline
6477 the Sept 2017 high
6461 the Jul 2017 high
6450 a Sept 2017 high
6342 the Jun 2017 high
6300 a Jun 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 6295

Have a terrific week.

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