Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


The the US stock market has trended higher on the recent economic data but over the past 7 weeks has not made a significant break higher on S&P 500, DJIA, 5 weeks on the NAS. SOX has been the leader with a steady, slow, move up the 10 day EMA.

The data is behind the market, but surviving the data releases is really not enough to move Wall Street traders. Something has to come along drive uptrends and send them higher.

Leadership has to remains solid enough to set up and take the market out of its sideways action

If this current leadership holds position to move that means participants will be looking at more Northside to take advantage of action in good stocks in good positions.

This market, with its light volume and weak breadth has been unable to make a clear break North of late, and with
momentum flagging, one has to be ready when power gets turned off  and the market reverses, it can and does happen when most are not prepared.

So, while letting the Northside run continue, be ready for the move to reverse.

Last Friday there were no major positives in the economic reports, and hence not across the market either.

Friday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA+72.66 at 18491.96, NAS Comp +22.69at 5249.90, S&P 500 +9.12 at 2179.97

Volume: Trade was light with 786-M/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • Russell 2000: +10.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: +6.7% YTD
  • DJIA: +6.1% YTD
  • NAS Comp: +4.8% YTD

As I write this report (12:26a EDT 6 August) the major US stock market index futures are trading flat to unchanged with a Bullish bias

Remember, always take what Wall Street gives, and its your money and your responsibility.


The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 11.98; -1.5
VXN: 14.32; -1.07
VXO: 10.8; -1.55

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.96; -0.05. Broke over 1.0 a few times last week.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

The sideways move in the market pushed the Wall Street Bulls back below 56  and drove Bears to 20.6 from 20.2.

The Bulls are at 55.9 Vs 56.7 last

The Bears are at 20.6 Vs 20.2 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA closed: 18,478.27

18,595 the Jul 2016 high

18,351 the May 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 18,355
18,288 a Mar 2015 high
18,247 the Aug 2016 low
18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,100 from Dec 2014
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
17,600 the Apr 2016 low
The 200-Day SMA: 17,553


S&P 500 close: 2179.98

2194 the Aug 2016 all-time high

2175 the Jun 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2155
2135 the May 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Feb 2015 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2111 the Apr 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dec 2014 high


NAS Comp closed: 5249.90

5271.36 the Aug 2016 all-time high

5232 the 2015 high
5162 the Nov 2015
The 50-Day EMA: 5121
5100 from May 2016
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high
4999 the Oct 2015 upper Gap mark
4980 the Jun 2016 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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