Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
The market had a positive reaction to the US NFPs given the Fed notion of rate hiking and balance sheet reducing.
If the Fed is hiking, the market wants to see positive economic data.
There are problems, as seen in the GDP reports, corporate profits are falling based upon the real test, i.e. the tax receipts.
That is the real measure of earnings, not the fake news non-GAAP earnings reported each Quarter. The
scarecrows in the US Senate are beginning to say they cannot repeal the ACA and will just have to tinker with its small business and jobs-killing structures.
If the US legislature impotence remains there will not be any changes in healthcare or tax policy and the slow playing will continue.
If this really happens and the market senses it and the Fed out of tools the market will get a reality check.
But, that does not mean there is not more Northside scope.
There are lots of good patterns to play for the Northside. The market is which groups will rise and which will fall on the rotation
We have not seen a lot of new money is coming in, what is happening is that managers are moving money around inside the market.
If the Fed is really set on raising rates there may be growth issues. Most Fed watchers do not see a hike in September, and are speculating on December if at all more this year.
Last Friday we saw managed money move into the market, now w have to see if it holds and sets up Bullish momentum.
So, regular readers of this column know that we will play good patterns when there. And survey the bigger picture, in Key areas:
- Time of the year
- Is the Fed is hiking
- US economics are not great
- Legislative agendas are questionable
At some point it will all come together and be in focus, but technically it is not here now. that is unless there is something that a big change.
Remember, it is your money and so, it is your responsibility. Always take what the market give, and never stand in front of a moving train.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 11.19; -1.35
VXN: 16.81; -1.19
VXO: 9.97; -2.19
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.93; -0.19
The Bulls Vs The Bears
No significant change, just back and forth in the recent ranges,
The Bulls are at 52.5 Vs 54.9 last
The Bears are at 18.8 Vs 18.6 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 21,414.34
21,535 the all-time high
21,169 the Mar 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 21,161
20,553 a May 2017 low
20,547 a Apr 2017 low
20,412 the Mar 2017 low
20,400 a Apr 2017 low.
20,126 the Jan 2017 high
20,101 a Jan 2017 high.
The 200 day SMA at 20,040
S&P 500 close: 2425.18
2439 a Jun 2017 high
2453 the all-time closing high
The 50-Day EMA: 2412
2406 the May 2017 high
2401 the Mar 2017 high
2352 a May 2017 low
2348 a Apr 2017 low
2329 a Mar 2017 low
2322 the Mar 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibo retrace
2301 a Jan 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2299
NAS Comp close: 6153.08
6205 a May 2017 high
6300 a Jun 2017 high
6341.70 the all-time high.
The 50-Day EMA at 6132
5997 the Y 2016 trendline
5996 the May 2017 low
5937 the Apr 2017 low
5915 the Apr 2017 high
5910 a Apr 2017 low
5800 a Feb 2017 low
The 200-Day SMA: 5705
Have a terrific week.
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