Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Note: At 5:18 a EDT on 24 April the major US stock market index futures are trading significantly higher across the board with S&P 500 June at + 25.75

The US stock market may well be influenced by the outside EU political factors, but just as with Brexit and the US election, the fears are overblown.

The issues are with world economies and whether things are as  we are told. Some believe the US has negative growth right now and that Q-1 was negative.

The Fed  surveys indicate Q-2 has slowed even more than late Q-1, that bolsters the gloom & doom argument the US is likely in recession as a weaker Q-2 would likely be a 2nd Q of negative growth, the data is not tell that yet.

There is lots of pessimism about the market’s prospects, so be very focused in here.

Just now, the US major stock market indexes are not in bad shape: S&P 500, DJIA, & NAS Comp, plus there is leadership as well as the restaurants join other retailers.

This week looking to see the indexes prove they can do more than just rebound off selling as they did this last week and all break out North.

The proof happens in the stocks when they moving  higher, so look at more Northside plays for the break North, and
keep some cash ready for Southside plays when they set up to happen.

Remember, always take what the market gives and tune out the noise.


The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 14.63; +0.48
VXN: 14.87; +0.41
VXO: 13.36; +0.69

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.04; +0.14, moved over 1.0 on expiration causing additional rolling out given the market’s rebound on the week.

The Bulls Vs The Bears:

After peaking over 60 and holding that mark for 7 weeks, the Bulls fell as the market struggled.

The Bulls are at 51.9 Vs 56.3 last

The Bears are at 18.3 Vs 17.5 last


Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 20,547.76

The 50-Day SMA: 20,705
21,100 the Mar 2017 high
21,169 the all-time high

The 50-Day EMA: 20,541
20,412 the Mar 2017 low
20,126 a Jan 2017 high
20,101 a Jan 2017 high.
19,999 the upper Gap mark from late Jan 2017
19750 the Jan 2017 range low
The 200-Day SMA: 19,320


S&P 500: Closed at 2348.69

The 50-Day SMA: 2357
2388  the Y 2016 trendline
2390 the Mar 2017 high
2401 the all-time high

The 50-Day EMA: 2342
2329 the Apr 2017 low
2322 the Mar 2017 low
2319 the 78% Fibo retrace mark
2301 a Jan 2017 high
2298 a Jan 2017 high
2282 – 2280 from Jan 2017
2278 the Dec 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2234


NAS Comp Close: 5910.52

5937 the all-time high April 2017

The 50-Day SMA: 5853
The 50-Day EMA: 5816
5800 from Feb 2017 lows
5767  the Y 2016 trendline
5661 the Jan 2017 upper gap mark
5601 the Jan 2017 lower gap mark
The 200-Day SMA: 5443

Have a terrific week.

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