Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
Could see a Fed rate hike, 93% possible according to the CME’s Fed Funds Futures, and the US reaching the debt ceiling limit this week. Expect it to extend with out a fuss.
The NFPs may have (may not have) sealed the rate hike, President Trump may want to see more growth before any action from the Fed, let’s see how that goes.
After looking at the US major market index charts tonight see no signs of determined sellers.
As I write this report at 4:50a EDT, the US major stock market index futures are trading flat to unchanged, Bias Neutral
Maybe a pullback is coming in here, but with the index action and the leadership action, once again there appears to be no sellers
of any number willing to take on The Trump Rally.
That can all change on the news, but the Big Q is: What might that news be?
A Fed rate hike?
Nope, the traders seem comfortable with a hike in here, as that is good news, read Strong Economy.
The debt ceiling could be a rally killer, but do not think so.
President Trump’s Treasury’s Mnuchin is asking to raise the debt limit to keep spending. The ironic news item the deficit is down $90-B since President Trump took office in January.
At of the end of last week the action was working well. Even though the media pundits were calling for a market top.
But, he trend, despite the negative Noise, is holding, and worries cannot change the trend and certainly have not changed the leaders setting up and breaking upside. Remember, the trend is our friend, and markets have a way of climbing a wall of worries.
So, until the leaders start to break down and the trends break, look for stocks setting up for the Northside, play them as them
make their moves.
Note: If President Trump and Fed Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen headed toward a collision, Ms Yellen will be the casualty. President.Trump is determined to stimulate faster growth while the Fed, could be indicating that it will seek to restrain any acceleration in economic activity. President Trump will have his way or Schoolmarm Yellen will be sacked.
Again, the Trend is our friend, always take what the market gives, the name of this Wall Street game is to make money.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 11.66; -0.64
VXN: 11.9; -0.57
VXO: 10.5; -0.67
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.88; -0.24
The Bulls Vs The Bears
The Bulls fell back below 60 in a big fall.
The Bears back over 17.
They are aligning with the Wall Street sentiment as we hear the Street.
The Bulls are at 57.7 Vs 63.1 last
The Bears are at 17.3 Vs 16.5 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 20,902.98
The 50-Day EMA: 20,317
The 50-Day SMA: 20,265
20,126 the Jan 2017 high
20,101 a Jan 2017 high.
19,994 a Jan 2017 high
The 200-Day SMA: 18,900
S&P 500 close: 2372.60
2329 the Y 2016 trendline
2301 a Jan 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2313
The 50-Day SMA: 2310
2280 from Jan 2017
2278 the Dec 2016 high
2213 the Nov 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2195
NAS Comp close: 5861.73
5912 the Mar 2017 all-time high.
5800 the Feb 2017 low
5661 the late Jan 2017 upper gap mark
The 50-Day EMA: 5697
The 50-Day SMA: 5677
5630 the Y 2016 trendline
5601 the Jan 2017 lower gap mark
5404 the Nov 2016 high
5340 is Oct 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 5297
Have a terrific week.