Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
S&P 500 futures Vs fair value: -7.30. NAS Comp futures Vs fair value: -13.90 at 6:30a EST
The Fed moved last week with a series of statements and speeches about how the time is appropriate for a rate hike, aka jawboning the markets.
If the NFPs Report Friday comes in solid, then March could really be on for a rate hike. At this stage of the Fed cycle and with the hope trade in place, a good report should be met with good cheer.
The Wall Street trends are still in place.
There is some chop and moderate volatility in some indexes, but they are following the NYSE’s lead, and that is to the Northside.
Financial stocks should lead, biotechs and drugs could do with some improving, as can the semiconductors.
The trend is North with some signs of weakness and internal and sentiment issues, but there is a lack of sellers, and
without earnest sellers, Southside action cannot get going.
When the market fades a bit it has been met with new buys after a rather modest pullback. So, when looking for plays look at those that are in line with that trend. When that slows then it may be a signal that a top is nearing.
But, we would have to see actual break downs in the leadership to really worry that this Northside leg is tired and the trend is finished.
Before that happen, we will hear just a lot of worry for no good reason.
Remember, the name of this Wall Street game is to make money, so always take what the market gives.
As it is your money and your responsibility
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 10.96; -0.85
VXN: 11.77; -0.94
VXO: 10.08; -1.92
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.94; -0.08. Jumped over 1.0 Tuesday and Thursday, it looks like some insurance buying.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
Note: Bulls rallied to a new cycle high while bears slipped back a whole point. 7 of 9 wks over 60%. Not at cycle lows for Bears, but
The Bulls are at 63.1 Vs 61.2 last
The Bears are at 16.5 Vs 17.5 last
Support Vs Resistance
DJIA close: 21,005.71
20,126 the Jan 2017 intra-day high
20,101 a Jan 2017 closing high.
The 50-Day EMA: 20,189
The 50-Day SMA: 20,170
19,999 the upper gap mark late Jan 2017
The 200-Day SMA: 18,816
S&P 500 close: 2383.12
2320 the Y 2016 trendline
2301 a Jan 2017 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2305
The 50-Day SMA: 2300
2280 from Jan 2017
2278 the Dec 2016 high
2213 the Nov 2016 high
2194 the Aug 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2187
NAS Comp close: 5870.75
5912 the Mar 2017 high.
5800 from the Feb 2017 lows
5661 the late Jan 2017 upper gap mark
The 50-Day EMA: 5664
The 50-Day SMA: 5640
5604 the Y 2016 trendline
5601 the January lower gap mark
5404 the Nov 201 high
5340 the Oct 2016 high
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5271 the Aug 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 5270
Have a terrific week.
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