Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
The NAS Comp leads the Bull charge on Wall Street, the other 2 US major indices are and have been ranged for the past 6 or so weeks.
Wall Street is watching the Inauguration this week as well as all of the issues that US President Elect Donald Trump opens and addressed as he manages the news cycles at home and abroad.
The market it will likely make its move when President Elect becomes President Donald Trump. That coincides with Q-4 earnings season opening up in earnest.
During this past 6 or so weeks many savvy Wall Street participants have tightened positions, preparing for the market’s up or down move that we all know is coming, it will not march in place forever.
Further, they have taken new positions in companies with good patterns in leading sectors preparing for the move.
Earnings could very well provide a catalyst for Wall Street to move.
Earnings move individual stocks, it may be the Inauguration of Donald Trump that moves stock indexes, as the certainty of Donald Trump’s campaign vows are put into motion.
Then there is the economic data.
Last Friday the US December retail sales were issues, and the headline # at 0.6% looked good enough compared to the 0.2% in November. The gainer was actually 0.0% sans autos and energy.
US auto sales that were at a record pace are expected to drop off, and motor fuel prices made up the bulk of the December increase.
The sellers are showing little strength, and the buyers are there to buy what the seller want to sell. That is a good sign, so be looking North in terms of new plays, look carefully, there will always be a trade.
This is a short week and it could still be another week of cautious trading.
Plan your work and work your plan, it is your money and your responsibility.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 11.23; -0.31
VXN: 13.34; -0.52
VXO: 10.62; -0.42
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE 0.92; -0.15 indicating there is still plenty of put protection buying as the market moves laterally. See this as a positive as the funds are still worried about selling enough to continue buying protection.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
The Bulls moved below 60 and below the prior week’s 59.8 reading, the damage was done once 60 was marked.
The Bulls are at 58.6 Vs 60.2 last
The Bears are at 18.4 Vs 18.4 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 19,885.73
19,989 the Dec 2016 closing high
The 20-Day EMA: 19,816
19750 the low of the last 6 week’s range
The 50-Day EMA: 19,437
The 50-Day SMA: 19,355
18,669 the Aug 2016 high
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 18,402
S&P 500 close: 2274.64
2278 the Dec 2016 high
The Y 2016 trendline: 2255
The 50-Day EMA: 2230
The 50-Day SMA: 2219
2213 the Nov 2016 high
2194 the Aug 2016 high
2175 the Jun 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2146
NAS Comp close: 5574.12
The 2016 trendline: 5458
5404 the Nov 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 5404
The 50-Day SMA: 5373
5340 the Oct 2016 high
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5271 the Aug 2016 high
5232 the Y 2015 high
5170 the Oct 2016 low.
5162 a Nov 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 5126
Have a terrific week.