Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Friday, what looked as if it could be a high note close to Y 2016 with an up session in an up market fell to the reality of a heavy volume rebalance.

Stocks sold to end Y 2016 but finished on a high note

  • Russell 2000 +19.5% YTD
  • DJIA +13.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +9.5% YTD
  • NAS Comp +7.5% YTD

The post-election Trump Rally brought on year end selling with stock funds at each fund’s required proportion.

US stocks opened the session higher but were unable to hold the move.

Stocks sold from the higher open through mid-day and to the final hour. A rebound in the last hour cut some of the losses.

As it is now at 12:29a EST on 3 January 2017 the 3 major US stock indexes are trading higher across the board.


The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 14.04; +0.67
VXN: 16.68; +1.12
VXO: 13.43; +0.52

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.09; +0.15  This is the 2nd 1+ read of the past 2 weeks as some more protection was put in place.
Elevated into the 0.90’s some more caution, nothing major.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Bulls slowed the ascent, up just 0.2, but that is much closer to 60.0. Remember, 60 to 65 is the mark that started many a market correction since Y 1998.  So, watch the technical indicator closely.  The Bears rose back up to 19.6 where they were 3 weeks ago.

The Bull are at 59.8 Vs 59.6 last

The Bears are at 19.6 Vs 19.2 last


Support and Resistance



DJIA close: 19,762.73


19,933.81 the Dec 2016 close

The 20-Day EMA: 19,613
The 50-Day EMA: 19,130
The 50-Day SMA: 18,904
18,669 the Aug 2016 high
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
18,351 the May 2015 high
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
18,247 the Aug 2016 low
The 200-Day SMA: 18,247


S&P 500 close: 2238.83


2263.79 the Dec 2016 close

The 10-Day EMA: 2257
2232 the Y 2016 trendline
2213 the Nov 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2205
2194 the Aug 2016 high
The 50-Day SMA: 2185
2175 the Jun 2016 high
2135 the May 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2132


NAS Comp close:  5383.11


5462.69 the Dec 2016 close

5404 the Nov 2016 high

5340 the Oct 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 5338
The 50-Day SMA: 5305
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5271 the Aug 2016 high
5232 the Y 2015 high
5170 the Oct 2016 low.
5162 a Nov 2016 high
5100 a May 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 5080

Have a terrific week and a prosperous New Year


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