Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


At the weekend there was an Italian election, the Italians, suffering from oppressively high unemployment and the huge costs
of the new immigrants, moved toward an ‘Italiexit’ from the EU.

One analyst I read said it was better to have the EU than separate countries with different currencies, central banks, etc. because of “all the additional regulation.”

The history book tells on just how regulations exploded under the EU Vs what was in place in individual countries before
joining. I have read some of them and I commented at the time, Nutz.

Do not know how Iteliexit will affect the US markets.

Currently the major US market index futures are trading flat with a Bearish bias.

I am expecting the US indexes to test/consolidate, that helps a market engaged in a much-needed test from its last run

That said, will watch for more leadership stocks to consolidate and set up new moves. Energy and Retail are showing nice fades.

Perhaps some chips can rally that group such as AVGO that has sold to the 200-Day SMA ahead of its earnings report this week.

Watch carefully for the next group to arise, the possibility of Retail is real.

If the market rally in the current leaders was really built on the hope of pro-economic policies Vs the same policies that produced
this most recent NFPs report, then the rally may face headwinds near term.

Remember, it is your money, and your responsibility, and always take what the market gives.


The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 14.12; +0.05
VXN: 16.99; -0.19
VXO: 14.11; +0.08

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.92; -0.03, 12 of 25 sessions over 1.0 on the close Friday. Edging closer to 1.0, but not seeing much Southside speculation.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

There is room for The Bulls to move higher to the upper end of the range 60ish. The Bears moved  higher on the week, leaving them mid-range and not as much an indicator as The Bulls.

The Bulls are at 56.3 Vs 55.6 last

The Bears are at 22.3 Vs 21.6 last


Support and Resistance



DJIA close: 19,170.42



The 10-Day EMA: 19,061
18,669 the Aug 2016 high
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 18,593
The 50-Day SMA: 18,462
18,351 the May 2015 high
18,288 from Mar 2015
18,247 the Aug 2016 low
18,168 the Apr 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 18,028
S&P 500 close: 2191.95

The 10-Day EMA: 2193
2194 the Aug 2016 high
2213 the Nov 2016 high

2175 the Jun 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2163
The 50-Day SMA: 2156
2135 the May 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Sept 2016 low
2116 is the Nov 2015 high
2111 the Apr 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2109


NAS Comp close: 5255.65

The 50-Day EMA: 5259
The 50-Day SMA: 5263
5271 the Aug 2016 high
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5309 a Oct 2016 high
5310 the Y 2016 up trendline
5340 the Sept 2016 high.

5232 the Y 2015 high
5170 the Oct 2016 low.
5162 a Nov 2016 high
5100 the Apr 2016 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 5021

Have a terrific week.

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