Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


The beginning of Q-3 starts Tuesday and with the Fed, BOE and ECB  stating they will stand by the markets, we may presume that the major Wall Street indices will continue North though perhaps after a pause to refresh given velocity the move South and the V move North. Then after some shaking out we see if the Northside continues.

Just because the indices are back at about pre-Brexit marks, that does not mean they broken the highs. They a strong resistance and they have not been able to breakout on several attempts. This round they will get help from central banks.

That does help Wall Street stocks, but not the same game changer that the Fed turning ultra-Dovish might have done or would do.

The BOE has signaled stimulus over the Summer and Mr. Draghi is ready to expand the ECB’s QE, but the US Fed has said publicly what it will do post-Brexit.  The FOMC minutes released this week were very  pre-Brexit.

When you see good patterns moving higher or ready then they are plays, but if and when they are bounces, let them bounce and fade before considering buying.

There are many that look ready to fall, be patient.

The market has rebounded, but it has not made that break above its prior highs, the S&P 500 is about 80 pts away, and do not assume Wall Street has to move further North, it is Summer, aka Dog Days.

DJIA at 7949.37, +0.11% resumes trading Tuesday after the US Holiday Monday and its price action around the resistance band of 18000-300 may turn out to be decisive, Key support is at 17650. The overbought state demands a sideways consolidation or a small correction before it can attempt a sustainable move to the all time highs and breakout.

If playing, play leaders in good patterns that break North, and also look at stocks breaking South. They tell some of the story, also make money and quickly.

Always take what the market gives.


The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 14.77; -0.86
VXN: 16.83; -0.75
VXO: 13.9; -0.87

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.92; -0.31. Only the 2nd session below 1.0 in  14 sessions, down at start of this new Quarter after topping 1.0
even as the market rallied to end June. That makes the rise in puts look like rolling out of positions rather than Southside speculation.
That is a lot of Put action, historically a Bullish indication.

Bulls and Bears: a big drop in Bulls countered by the recovery.

The Bulls are at 41.6 Vs 47.5 last

The Bears are at 23.8 Vs 23.2 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 17,949.37

17,978 the Nov 2015 high
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
18,181 the Jul 2015 high
18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,288 the Mar 2015
18,351 the May 2015 all time high

The 50 -Day SMA at 17,754
The 50-Day EMA at 17,692
17,600 the Jun 2016 low.
17,351 the Sept 2014 high.
17,265 a Dec 2015 low
The 200-Day SMA : 17,264


S&P 500 close: 2102.95

2104 the Dec 2015 high
2111 the April 2016 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2119 the Feb 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 peak
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2130 the June 2015 peak
2135 the May 2015 all-time high

2094 the Dec 2014 high
2079 the Nov 2014 high
The 50-Day SMA: 2071
2062 a Jan 2015 high
2046 the Jul 2015 low
2040 the Mar 2015 low
2026 the May 2016 low
2023 the Nov 2015 low
The 200-Day SMA: 2023


NAS Comp close: 4862.57

4894 the Sept 2015 chigh
4902 the Jul 2015 low
4916 a Nov 2015 low
4920 the Jan 2016 lower Gap mark
4960 the Sept 2015 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4980 the Jun 2016 peak
4999 the Oct 2015 upper Gap mark
5009 a Mar 2015 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5100 the May 2015 high
5162 a Nov 2015 high


4836 the Mar 2016 high
The 50-Day SMA: 4827
The 200-Day SMA; 4818
4815 the Dec 2014 high
4811 the Nov 2014 high
4774 the Jan 2015 high

Stay tuned and have a terrific week.

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