Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
No matter what we hear Barack Hussein Obama, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sander we all know why the unemployment rate is at 4.7%, yes.
Just about 33% of the nation is not working, and that group is a much larger portion of the actual working-aged group in society. And if the other 7.4-M people who are officially unemployed decided to leave the workforce,US unemployment would be 0%.
And get this, there are 5.8-M jobs in America begging for qualified applicants.
With all of that, Wall Street does not see an interest rate hike until November or December if then.
Chairwoman Janet Yellen will talk Monday in Philadelphia and everyone on Wall Street will watch, listen and parse her words. Expect her to be Dovish Monday.
If she is Hawkish then the financial stocks will recover, and take the leadership. Who knows, wait to see.
Near term the market still could use a test.
The S&P 500 and NAS Comp are struggling at the April highs, a good place to fade.
The Big Q: Do the large caps drag down the leadership indices, or if the leaders, tech and small caps, represent where the money is moving and pull the big names up.
Last week, the 1st week of the month, Wall Street money moved back into equity funds after sidelining as the market bottomed for this current rebound, a net positive of $1.6-B not a lot.
Continue to look at the leadership groups, and if there is a pullback we want to use them as plays on a rebound if there is one.
Again, this leg cannot rally much more before it needs to test, and it does move North will use it to bank more gains, and wait for the test, it is Summer, and then play the bounce.
The pattern of this market is still in that big 1.5 year rounding top and this mark for the indices is starting to give in to a stall. Meaning, exercise caution and watch closely when a pullback starts.
The US economy is weak, jobs are rolling over to follow it, and the Fed likely still wants to hike rates but cannot.
The name of this Wall Street game is to make money, meaning play the good stocks, and be alert and recognize where the market is and what it is doing.
Remember, prudence, discipline, there will always be a trade.
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 13.47; -0.16
VXN: 15.03; -0.12
VXO: 12.59; -0.13
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.88; -0.03
As fast as the Wall Street Bulls dove the prior week they spiked 10 points. Highest reading in 7 weeks (47.5). The Bears fell, but not at the same rate. Back and forth action shows investment advisers are being fickle. When they get to 60 the rally is condemned, the big money is cautious in here.
The Bulls are at 45.4 Vs 35.4 last
The Bears are at 23.7 Vs 24.0 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 17,807.06
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
18,181 a Jul 2015 high
18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,288 a Mar 2015 high
18,351 the May 2015 all-time high
17,786 the Mar 2016 low
17,7155 the Jun 2015 low
17,748 the mid-Apr 2015 low
The 50-Day EMA: 17,635
17,351 the Sept 2014 high.
17,265 a Dec 2015 low
17,245 the Nov 2015 low
17,152 the mid-July 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 17,131
S&P 500 close: 2099.13
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2111 the Apr 2016 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2120 the Feb 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 peak
2135 the May 2015 all-time high
2094 the Dec 2014 high,
2079 the Nov 2014 high
2062 a Jan 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2061
2046 the Jul 2015 low
2040 the Mar 2015 low
2023 the Nov 2015 low
2020 the Sept 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2011
NAS Comp closed: 4942.52
4960 the Sept 2015 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4999 the Oct 2015 upper gap mark
5007 the Dec 31 2015 upper gap mark
5009 a Mar 2015 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5100 a May 2015 high
5176 is the Dec 2015 high
4920 the Jan 2016 lower gap mark
4916 a Nov2015 low
4902 the Jul 2015 low
4894 the Sept 2015 high
4825 the Mar 2015 low
The 50-Day SMA: 4845
4836 the Mar 2016 high
4815 the Dec 2014 high
The 200 day SMA: 4810
Have a terrific week.